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Post by jules on Jun 30, 2014 23:36:30 GMT
I love Jo, she's so sweet and I've enjoyed watching her. She's followed both orgs I've played with Trevor and always gets so involved, it's cute because my husband could really care less but I love having her "cheer" for me. I'm am glad she had such a great experience here and made it so far. I wish she would have made some big moves, I don't really see her having a shot at winning because she didn't really stand out from a game perspective but I could be wrong, she does have a lot of friends on the jury. Whatever happens, I doubt this is the last time the org community will see her - she'll be hooked!
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sami
Alumni
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Post by sami on Jul 1, 2014 0:38:28 GMT
Joannimal<3
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Jared
Prediction Writers
iS 3rd Generation player
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Post by Jared on Jul 1, 2014 0:45:31 GMT
JOANNE FOR THE WIN!!! YA'LL NEEDS TO HAPPEN!
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kirin
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I love Joe Purcell
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Post by kirin on Jul 1, 2014 1:08:52 GMT
I actually think Joanne will win if she makes finals. She's kind of in the same position as Jedda in iSurv1vor India- didn't play the most dominant game, but their underdog stories has gained them favor with the jury, but they are still the underdog in the final 4 and not the best at challenges, so unlikely chances of making the finals. But never say never!
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nax
Alumni
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Post by nax on Jul 1, 2014 7:00:42 GMT
Look, I like Joanne, too, but you can't be serious thinking she has any chance in hell at winning. If either Jacob or Hodges are sitting with her at FTC, she won't get any votes at all. If it's (somehow) her and Christina, OK, maybe then she could win. I'd throw up a little bit (love them both, but definitely not MY choice for finalists), but it could happen. But honestly, I don't think she'll get past the F4 round. No, sorry, I like her, but just no.
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Jared
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Post by Jared on Jul 1, 2014 9:04:21 GMT
If Joanne can get past this round than she will win the game she's never pissed off any of the members of the jury. She's the Mary of this season but this time she came with a game plan after asking production questions "as she did her rites of passage video thanking production". So it will be a good show to see how she''ll end her journey on iS to being a wife.
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nax
Alumni
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Post by nax on Jul 1, 2014 9:15:07 GMT
"not pissing anyone off" is not the only criterium juries will use in deciding a winner. I see this every season, both here and on the show: a belief that bitterness (or iB1tterness) is the only deciding factor. It's not. If it were, Audrey would not have won Venezuela. No, I expect that she could well manage two votes in her favor by early Jacmel boots on the jury, but no more.
And let's be honest here: who has Jacob pissed off? Only Vic really has a reason to be upset with him for turning on him when he was voted out, but do you really believe he's going to vote based on that? Yeah, neither do I. If Jacob is at the end (and I don't doubt he will be) he'll win this thing hands down. If he's not, and it's Hodges instead, I think it comes down to story, and girls, the underdog story beats the quietly-didn't-do-squat story every time.
As I said before, Joanne's only hope is that it's a F2 FTC, and she winds up with Christina at the end. And really, guys, do any of you really think that's going to happen? Do you think Hodges is going to betray his buddy, Jacob? Do you think Christina is going to grow a spine? I sure don't. I mean, it COULD happen, but I just don't see it.
I like Joanne. But her game is non-existent. This jury will vote for the better player, with minimal heart-brain warring and pretty much no real iB1tterness.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2014 10:22:29 GMT
A f4 rop suggests a 3 FTC. I wouldn't write off Joanne winning IF Jacob becomes a juror - I've been tracking the players using the TDT tracker (will upload later on) and she is leading the pack with Jacob on her tail and Hodges trailing in 4th.
The only guaranteed goat at this moment is Cristina.
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kirin
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Post by kirin on Jul 1, 2014 12:30:54 GMT
I have heard from the jury themselves that they are rooting for Joanne. Jared, Vic (after Cristina of course), Nikki, and Yapp have all expressed that they are rooting for Joanne and would like to see her win. Derek has recently added that he's impressed with her game and respects her decision to vote him out. I realize that you don't have access to the jury skype group, but I am just telling you now the things I have been reading. She does have a chance at winning. I think her chances of making the finals are unlikely because they want to vote her out next, but you can't say that they she has no shot of winning. Yes, Jacob is the clear front runner for sure, but if Joanne makes it to the finals (which would be an uphill battle), she has a very, very good shot of winning. When she speaks in TC, the jury always says what a great speaker she is, so she has that going for her as well.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2014 13:21:51 GMT
Joanne's win rests on Jacob being voted off tonight. Calling it right now.
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Post by Sandy on Jul 1, 2014 15:56:36 GMT
With dominant front-runners winning the last few seasons of iS ... i feel like Joanne winning is what iS needs, another Tomas win TY>
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kirin
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Post by kirin on Jul 1, 2014 16:42:44 GMT
Definitely. Joanne has a very unique story, and the jurors see that. Sure, she didn't piss a lot of them off, but I think they also respect how quietly she has been able to maneuver through this game. Since the absorption, she's had the odds against her so many times, but she always finds a way to survive. I think Joanne is someone who would benefit from FTC being all on call as opposed to written. She is very well spoken when she speaks and the jury seems to love hearing her perspective. She is strong minded and strong willed, and I think those are traits that would help her to win. She definitely wouldn't be the most dominant winner, but a quieter, underdog winner, and like Sandy said, that is what iSurv1vor kind of needs. It's awesome that we've had so many strong, big players win, but that's boring if that's who wins every season!
But that being said, it's unlikely. Joanne isn't good at challenges, and she is definitely the target. There is pretty much no way that she will make the finals unless she magically goes on an immunity run. I know Cristina said a couple days ago that she wants to work with Joanne and cause a tie, but I just don't see it happening. But here's hoping that Cristina has one more trick up her sleeve!
Speaking of Cristina, she is the only one left who I really would not be satisfied seeing win. Love her and I think she's awesome, and I think she played AMAZING up until Vic's departure. But I think she let his elimination defeat her too much. She kind of has reminded me of Monica Culpepper since then; she'll contemplate making a "big move," but then she won't do it. Lol she even said at a TC, "Cristina will do what Cristina wants to do." I think I'd respect her game more if she was more confident about her moves on a strategic level, but I think I am getting turned off by her "I want to work with these people, and if I lose to them, at least I lose to people I like." It just gives off the impression that she doesn't care, which I know isn't true, but that's how it comes across to me.
I still think Hodges winning would be amazing. His Les Cayes underdog story still amazes me. At the absorption, he did so much quiet work to ensure his position with both "sides," and he was crucial in the Jared vote. Since then, he's barely been a target because he has positioned himself so well and he's looked at as loyal, trustworthy, but also not a threat. The truth is that he's been a threat this whole time, but has been able to downplay that. He's also been able to vote people out and not have them incredibly mad at him. So I think he's done a great job and I would be so happy to see him win.
However I still think Jacob will take this home. And it will be very well deserved. I hate to call it "predictable," but at this point I just don't see how he can't win. He's without a doubt the best one at challenges left, and his alliance with Hodges is so strong that as long as they're not going to vote against each other, they should be good to go. The only thing that can mess him up is if the 2 girls team up, and if they win the next 2 challenges. The odds of this are unlikely, but it's still possible. I don't think the jury will ultimately vote iB1tterly, I think he'll get the votes to win. He's been the driving force behind many votes, and so many people in this game pledged their loyalty to him and didn't waver on it. He's really just played an amazing social game and I really think he'd make an amazing winner.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2014 17:03:52 GMT
Joanne and Jacob are tied for challenge wins currently, though he does edge Joanne out in terms of winning safety in 1st where all the others since before the re merge have been the top x amount.
If everything comes down to a predictable conclusion then it's going to be (with 3 at FTC)
Joanne Cristina Hodges Jacob
IF it's 2 people at FTC then it's a toss up between Jacob/Hodges going for third because they would be crazy to face off against one another.
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nax
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Post by nax on Jul 1, 2014 22:07:13 GMT
I have heard from the jury themselves that they are rooting for Joanne. Jared, Vic (after Cristina of course), Nikki, and Yapp have all expressed that they are rooting for Joanne and would like to see her win. Derek has recently added that he's impressed with her game and respects her decision to vote him out. I realize that you don't have access to the jury skype group, but I am just telling you now the things I have been reading. She does have a chance at winning. I think her chances of making the finals are unlikely because they want to vote her out next, but you can't say that they she has no shot of winning. Yes, Jacob is the clear front runner for sure, but if Joanne makes it to the finals (which would be an uphill battle), she has a very, very good shot of winning. When she speaks in TC, the jury always says what a great speaker she is, so she has that going for her as well. I don't doubt for a moment that the Jury are saying these things, but I'd be willing to bet that when faced with voting between her and Jacob, or even her and Hodges, their tune will change. Sure, they like her, and the enjoy her story. But just like us, they're shying away from predictable outcomes and hoping 'something else' happens. It's the in-play perspective they're expressing, not the FTC perspective. OK, so I'm speaking from a lot more authority than I actually have, since I DON'T have access to the Jury chat, and can only guess at their motivations. But I still think I'm right. Joanne doesn't win against either Jacob or Hodges. She'll pull out a narrow victory if she only needs to fact Christina (and deserves better than a narrow victory in that scenario, IMO).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2014 22:33:30 GMT
I used the guideline set by truedorktimes ( link here) that uses an attempt at sabermetrics to determine the outcome of each round based on their actions so far and their likelihood of surviving for the next three days.
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